"Joy and pleasure are as real as pain and sorrow and one must learn what they have to teach. . . ." -- Sean Russell, from Gatherer of Clouds

"If you're not having fun, you're not doing it right." -- Helyn D. Goldenberg

"I love you and I'm not afraid." -- Evanescence, "My Last Breath"

“If I hear ‘not allowed’ much oftener,” said Sam, “I’m going to get angry.” -- J.R.R. Tolkien, from Lord of the Rings

Saturday, August 26, 2017

Saturday Sort-Of Science: We Don't Need No Stinkin' Forecasts!

With a good does of politics. A rather timely article:

Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey is strengthening as it approaches the Texas coast, and the massive storm is underscoring another big disturbance on the way: the battle over President Donald Trump’s proposed cuts to the National Weather Service.

Charged with providing weather forecasts and warnings, the National Weather Service also makes its data available to hundreds of companies that use it for everything from smartphone applications to agricultural equipment. Trump earlier this year proposed cutting its budget by 6 percent and that of its parent agency, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), by a mammoth 16 percent. It was an unprecedented proposal in the National Weather Service’s storied history that extends back to 1890, when it was founded as the U.S. Weather Bureau.

Trump also proposed huge subcuts for programs that engage in computer modeling of storms, as well as observation of storms and dissemination of data. Tsunami research and prediction would be cut, along with supercomputing investments and a program to extend more accurate modeling to 30 days from 16, which could have huge benefits for everything from the insurance to the transportation industries.

Trump is the president of the willingly ignorant -- the ones who think, like Justice Samuel Alitto, that belief trumps facts. (Which was the argument he made in his majority opinion in Hobby Lobby -- since the owners of Hobby Lobby believed that the contraceptives in question were abortifacients and they are morally opposed to abortion, that belief justified their refusal to provide insurance that covered contraceptives, as mandated by the ACA -- even though those contraceptives were not, in fact, abortifacients.) The reason NOAA and the NWS are targets for budget cuts is, of course climate change: Rex Tillerson's friends in the oil industry don't want any further research in that area -- and besides, if we have accurate information on the effect of fossil fuels, how can he bring back all those jobs in the coal industry?

The article notes that the accuracy of NWS forecasts has fallen off over the years, which, as someone who religiously checks the forecast every morning, I can vouch for.

But gods forbid we should try to improve it.

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