"Joy and pleasure are as real as pain and sorrow and one must learn what they have to teach. . . ." -- Sean Russell, from Gatherer of Clouds

"If you're not having fun, you're not doing it right." -- Helyn D. Goldenberg

"I love you and I'm not afraid." -- Evanescence, "My Last Breath"

“If I hear ‘not allowed’ much oftener,” said Sam, “I’m going to get angry.” -- J.R.R. Tolkien, from Lord of the Rings

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Job, Jobs, Jobs. . . .

It looks like we may have to rely on the coal industry to keep Americans working.

Fewer international travelers came to the United States during the first few months of this year than over the same period last year, confirming concerns of some in the travel industry.

New figures released by the U.S. Department of Commerce show a drop in international visitors to the United States by close to 700,000 in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the previous year. European countries were down 10.1 percent, and Mexico was off 7.1 percent in the quarter. The largest drops were from the Middle East and Africa, though they represent a much smaller percentage of overall travel to the United States.

Overall, 697,791 fewer foreigners visited the United States in the first three months of the year, down 4.2 percent to 15.8 million. According to Tourism Economics, a branch of Oxford Economics based in Wayne, Pa., that analyzes travel data, the drop represents a loss of nearly $2.7 billion in spending.

It's not only hotels and restaurants that are going to suffer. People visiting the U.S. shop, they visit cultural attractions and national parks, you name it. As a small example, Chicago is a major tourist destination. I was talking to a couple from North Carolina the other day, and they were all set to tour Chicago -- they'd gotten City Passes, which give free admission to a number of attractions, including most of the major museums. (And just a note on museum admissions: regular, nonresident admission to the Field Museum is $22 -- plus up to $25 additional for special exhibitions. The prices for the Art Institute start at $14 for Chicago residents and go up from there.) Granted, these were American tourists, but they were going the full tour -- museums, shopping, restaurants, the trolley system that takes you around to the various attractions without having to figure out the buses (which even some Chicagoans have trouble with, if they're in an unfamiliar part of town). I'd say it's at least comparable to the kind of visit that foreign tourists would plan. Now, think of all the jobs involved in servicing those people, from hotel staff to trolley drivers to retail "associates" (as they call them these days), museum staff, waiters, and on down the line.

As for why --

The question of whether the results prove a ripple effect from President Trump’s proposed travel ban on visitors from six majority-Muslim countries, an expanded wall along the Mexican border and anti-immigrant statements remains unanswered. But the data tracks with a decline in United States favorability abroad: In June, the Pew Research Center found that 49 percent of those surveyed in 37 nations had a positive view of the United States, versus 64 percent at the end of President Obama’s term in office.

Last week, Pew reported that nearly two-thirds of Mexicans held a negative opinion of the United States, more than double the figure of two years ago, which stood at 29 percent.

“It’s not a reach to say the rhetoric and policies of this administration are affecting sentiment around the world, creating antipathy toward the U.S. and affecting travel behavior,” said Adam Sacks, the president of Tourism Economics.

In response to a Facebook post by The New York Times, European readers overwhelmingly cited the Trump administration and its policies as reasons for avoiding or canceling trips to the United States.

Those are the broad, abstract reasons. In terms of real people, the comments at Joe.My.God.'s coverage of this are illuminating. This is from commenter vorpal, who's an American expatriate:

I'm an American citizen and every time I travel through the US, I feel like a criminal based on the way that security treats me. As an expat, my desire to go to the US as a vacation destination is pretty much zero at this point.

Body scans, laptop searches, having to remove my damned shoes?
No, thanks.

And this is an American citizen just visiting home. (A side note: I haven't done any traveling for a while, so I'm a bit out of touch with current conditions at security stations at the airports. I can only guess that they've gotten worse than merely annoying.)

It's not just individual tourists. From commenter Hue-Man:

Canadian schools and their sports teams stopped travel to the U.S. when Muslim students were hauled off the buses at U.S. ports of entry. Conference planners around the world have to consider how many of their speakers and conference attendees might not be able to attend when they read stories like this.

SEVEN entrepreneurs based in the Brussels district Molenbeek, dubbed the 'jihadi capital of Europe' have been denied entry into the US.

There are a lot of comments from Canadians who are going to Europe or South America for their vacations this year, instead of the U.S.

But to get back to the basic premise: The NYT notes that this ("this" being Trump) has cost us $2.7 billion in the first three months of 2017. Given that most overseas vacations are planned well in advance, it's only going to get worse, as people elect not to come here later this year or next.

And it's going to cost jobs.

Way to go, Donnie!

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