It's been dizzying -- Illinois and Hawai'i in the past week, following hard on the heels of Rhode Island, New Jersey, and Minnesota, right after Maine, Maryland, and Washington in last year's elections. David Atkins came up with the perfect metaphor in a post at Hullabaloo:
Big economic and political change works like punctuated equilibrium. Nothing changes for a long time--until suddenly it does. And then everything changes quickly.
For those of you not familiar with evolutionary theory, "punctuated equilibrium" was the contribution of Steven Jay Gould and Niles Eldridge to the basic theory. In short, punctuated equilibrium says that speciation, the development of new species from old, occurs in isolated populations and happens relatively quickly. It pretty much torpedoed Darwin's theory of gradualism, in which one species changes into another over time, in favor of the idea that species split from a common ancestor, which is what actually seems to have been happening.
Of course, it's not a perfect analogy -- they very seldom are -- but look at the history: Massachusetts in 2004, then nothing until 2008 (California and Connecticut), then in 2009, Iowa, Vermont, New Hampshire and D.C., and then the floodgates opened, to the extent that ten years ago, one state had passed legislation legalizing same-sex marriage; now there are sixteen plus D.C., with measures and/or court cases pending in another eighteen or twenty (I'm losing count), some of which will be resolved in the next six months to a year.
It's also known as "momentum."
As for the future, you may have seen this video, but it bears watching again:
Big economic and political change works like punctuated equilibrium. Nothing changes for a long time--until suddenly it does. And then everything changes quickly.
For those of you not familiar with evolutionary theory, "punctuated equilibrium" was the contribution of Steven Jay Gould and Niles Eldridge to the basic theory. In short, punctuated equilibrium says that speciation, the development of new species from old, occurs in isolated populations and happens relatively quickly. It pretty much torpedoed Darwin's theory of gradualism, in which one species changes into another over time, in favor of the idea that species split from a common ancestor, which is what actually seems to have been happening.
Of course, it's not a perfect analogy -- they very seldom are -- but look at the history: Massachusetts in 2004, then nothing until 2008 (California and Connecticut), then in 2009, Iowa, Vermont, New Hampshire and D.C., and then the floodgates opened, to the extent that ten years ago, one state had passed legislation legalizing same-sex marriage; now there are sixteen plus D.C., with measures and/or court cases pending in another eighteen or twenty (I'm losing count), some of which will be resolved in the next six months to a year.
It's also known as "momentum."
As for the future, you may have seen this video, but it bears watching again:
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