Trump is a f*cking moron. Against the advice of just about everyone -- except the hard-core evangelical right who want to bring on Armageddon -- Trump has recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and is planning to move our embassy there. Josh Marshall has a persuasive look at why it's not part of some master plan for peace in the Middle East:
It becomes more and more obvious that Trump wants a war somewhere, and he doesn't really much care where, just as it become more and more obvious that he it oblivious to any real consequences of his actions. It's a matter of, as Digby points out, asserting his dominance and making sure everyone else knows their place:
Extend that to the oligarchs who own Congress and I think Digby has it cold.
Where do you suppose the next terrorist attack will take place? The American consulate in Jerusalem?
Footnote: The reaction is not positive.
Update: Here's what appears to be a good analysis of Trump's Jerusalem speech:
It doesn't alter my initial assessment. We can only hope the "planning" takes long enough that Trump is in jail before it's complete.
I would say that this is 90% political and a matter of satisfying the President’s need for an act of self-assertion. The other 10% does slightly fall into the category of forward-moving gambits. It’s one you need to be exposed to the more extreme right-wing variants of Zionism to be familiar with.
It basically goes like this: What keeps the conflict going is Israel’s and the international community’s indulgence of unrealistic expectations on the part of the Palestinians. The path to peace is to make it totally clear, with established facts, that the Palestinians will essentially get nothing. Nothing here would be defined as a few autonomous self-governing zones within the West Bank under over-arching Israeli security control. No capital or even foothold in East Jerusalem. Not even a demilitarized version of sovereignty. No geographical contiguity. Nothing. Basically the right to self-govern in civil matters in the parts of the West Bank where there are too many Palestinians to outnumber with Israeli settlers. Once Palestinians expectations are set to a realistic level, you can get down to negotiations.
There are needless to say, a number of problems with this theory. But you hear it a lot as a sort of guiding theory of the case on the Zionist right. I would count it as 35% profoundly misguided idea, 65% mendacious self-assertion. That’s probably what the top Trumpers are telling themselves.
I would be remiss if I didn’t note the obvious. Not only did the President put the region’s issues in the hands of his neophyte son-in-law. He put it in the hands of a settlement activist. Obviously nothing possibly good can come of this.
It becomes more and more obvious that Trump wants a war somewhere, and he doesn't really much care where, just as it become more and more obvious that he it oblivious to any real consequences of his actions. It's a matter of, as Digby points out, asserting his dominance and making sure everyone else knows their place:
There is a faction of hard-liners who believe what Grover Norquist said about Democrats back when the Republicans took the congress in 2002 applies to all their adversaries:
"Once the minority of House and Senate are comfortable in their minority status, they will have no problem socializing with the Republicans. Any farmer will tell you that certain animals run around and are unpleasant, but when they've been fixed, then they are happy and sedate. They are contented and cheerful. They don't go around peeing on the furniture and such."
This is how these far right folks think about everything. Win and exert your dominance and then everyone will be happy and docile in their properly assigned roles.
Extend that to the oligarchs who own Congress and I think Digby has it cold.
Where do you suppose the next terrorist attack will take place? The American consulate in Jerusalem?
Footnote: The reaction is not positive.
Update: Here's what appears to be a good analysis of Trump's Jerusalem speech:
My take away from the speech is that he’s going to continue to sign the waivers to keep the US embassy to Israel in Tel Aviv until an embassy can be built in Jerusalem in accordance with the 1995 law that recognizes Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. He made a very clear statement that beginning the planning for moving the embassy should not infringe on final status issues between the Israelis and Palestinians. This includes the final status of Jerusalem vis a vis the Israelis and Palestinians.
What needs to be understood is that no matter how nice the speech sounded, nor the nuance and clarity I highlighted above, is that the President’s statements and actions on the status of Jerusalem is completely disconnected from the reality on the ground. Despite seeming to reinforce the US policy preference for a two state solution, by changing US policy and embracing the 1995 Jerusalem Embassy Act he has undercut the US’s preference for a two state solution by preemptively dealing with the issue of Jerusalem.
It doesn't alter my initial assessment. We can only hope the "planning" takes long enough that Trump is in jail before it's complete.
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